Wednesday, 3 June 2009

Recommended Reading List #26

Many of our local commentators have been attempting to spin stories in an attempt to win votes for their preferred side, so on the eve of the ballot it's worth looking at what the polls predict.

Anthony Wells has a round-up of polls conducted for the European elections on his excellent UKPR blog and he unspins the statistical and psephological quirks to uncover a closer picture of what results to expect.

Unless there is a late and sudden switch expect Conservatives to gain 28%, Labour 17%, LibDems 15%, UKIP 15%, Green 10% and BNP 5%. However, without more accurate information on the uniformity of swings he says it is impossible to do more than guess at the numbers of MEPs each side may end up sending to Brussels.

Of the 78 seats contested at the 2004 elections to the European Parliament Conservatives returned 27, Labour 19, LibDem 12, UKIP 12, Green 2, SNP 2, Plaid Cymru 1 and Northern Irish parties 3 MEPs. Due to expansion of the EU in the intervening period the total will be reduced to 72 seats.


Update: An additional poll published by YouGov is reported on UKPR. The large sample size shows a slight shift away from Labour and Conservative parties.


BBC has helpfully provided a complete collection of 2009 party election broadcasts which may help you make up your mind if you are still undecided.

They also provide a full list of all candidates standing in the South East England region.

Linda Fort provides a two-line summary of everything each party stands for.


  1. How well will Jean-Louis Pascual do?

  2. Reading's own Roman Party candidate - Ave!

    He should be happy if he gets more than M.

  3. 42% left-wing 48% right-wing

  4. I told my husband to vote Roman this year. He's trying to get more than 33 votes. He had to get a loan this year to stand.

  5. BNP are left-wing. What do you think the 'socialist' in 'national-socialist' stands for?

  6. BNP are left wing - lol. The BNP, UKIP, the inexperienced (Green), the English Democrats and all of the fringe "I'm a one trick pony" parties will score f-all, as usual - don't waste your vote - put the card in a recycling bin.

  7. The person who originally made the BNP are left wing comment went on later to say that the German Democratic Republic was the epitome of democracy...

    I wouldn't say Greens are inexperienced either... got a pretty decent leader who knows what she is talking about and has been part of the European scene as an MEP for a while now- she would be one of the most effective MP's in the country if she became one... and anyway, how else do you get experience?? Look what the main parties have done to this country with their 'experience'.

    I hope that instead of putting your card in the recycling bin you actually spoil your ballot paper instead- shamless plug alert: or :-)

  8. Hello Matt

    Don't vote - it encourages them. I used my voting card to remove some jobbies from the cats tray - for a minute, the political system was working for me - it felt good.

  9. I spoilt my paper, took it out for a pizza and a nice bottle of chianti... boom, boom

    I alway vote thought, can't help it, like I always finish my peas, the guilt is too much.


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