Berkshire Voter Power

Not all votes are equal, as the power of your vote varies across the country, constituency by constituency.

Datablog examines the relative power of an individual vote in each seat and calculates where turnout could have a stronger effect in Thursday's elections.

Average voter power across the country is 0.255, which means the electorate has slightly more than a 1-in-4 chance of changing their Member of Parliament in each seat.

However only 3 of Berkshire's 8 seats have a higher than average rating, while the others have a very safe score.

Here is the chart:

Seat (alphabetically): Voter power; Compared to Average; Probability of a change of MP
BRACKNELL: 0.088 - 0.35 - 4.67%
MAIDENHEAD: 0.182 - 0.72 - 9.29%
NEWBURY: 0.462 - 1.83 - 24.99%
READING EAST: 0.771 - 3.05 - 41.57%
READING WEST: 0.276 - 1.09 - 14.49%
SLOUGH: 0.108 - 0.43 - 5.85%
WINDSOR: 0.092 - 0.36 - 4.49%
WOKINGHAM: 0.186 - 0.74 - 9.44%

In other words each and every vote cast in Reading East is worth nearly 10-times those in Bracknell or Windsor and almost 3-times of those across town in Reading West.


Oranjepan asks:
Will people respond to the level of competition to win each seat and push turnout higher where our votes matter more?

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Related Reading: Berkshire General Election Guide

Round-Up: Reactions To The First Leadership Debate

#rdgpol - Nearly 10m people tuned in to watch the 'historic' first ever UK leadership election debate, so a sample from the local blogosphere will show how it went down with the public.

BBC South's political correspondent Peter Henley notes how there will always be a few who are turned off by politics, a few who get bored and a few who are genuinely undecided, 'pondering the question' of which way to vote.


So Reading List settled down to tune in (with some popcorn) to watch how proceedings unfurled.


Bloggers reactions

Newbury citizen journalist Jim Millen (who previously admitted he is tending towards voting Conservative) says "it was quite compelling viewing and an intriguing addition to our democratic process," calling the result 'very even actually'.

He says LibDem leader Nick Clegg was "best in tune with the studio audience," but while he was impressed with the solidity of Gordon Brown's performance David Cameron didn't show enough 'enthusiasm, fire and passion'.

For him the debate was frustrating as it didn't provide enough rational scrutiny of the respective party policies and says it was "depressing to see the negativity, sniping and bitterness being expressed" on the twitter #leadersdebate stream.

Jim also thought the format was successfully handled by ITV moderator Alistair Stewart given the artificiality of the format on its' first airing and the potential that it could've "degenerated into argumentative scrapping."

However Green Party candidate Adrian Windisch had obviously already made his mind up to be bored by the process from the start, calling it 'underwhelming' - even exclaiming a 'Yawn'. In a clear expression of his level of engagement with the political process he attempts to summarise the responses to the questions: 'Repeat ad nauseum. Again.'

Adrian's only amusement came from reading the #leadersdebate twitterstream and he provides a lengthy diatribe against the three parties for not addressing the economic issues facing the country (Editor's note: home affairs were the subject of the first debate, foreign affairs will be covered in part two before the debate turns to economic issues in part three).

To round things off Adrian attacks the audience for asking 'poor' questions and Alistair Stewart for his 'poor' moderation.

Labour's Cllr John Ennis also gives no allowance for ITV's handling of the new format as he trots out the official party line conceding points on performance to the LibDems, but asserting a moral victory for Gordon Brown on the substantive issues.

But Bracknell branding expert Leslie Everett argues that

"it's not just a matter of having the right substance and the right manifestos, we've got to make sure we feel like people mean them as well... the brand image that comes across really does help us to feel the credibility or not."

She comments "Gordon Brown... was holding on to the podium for dear life at one stage" and David Cameron "was just too polished and too direct," as he "came across as a little bit insincere... we didn't really feel like we meant some of this stuff."

Elsewhere atheist blogger Steve Borthwick thinks it's "easy to become cynical" about the difficult choice between the parties.

Nevertheless, he says, Nick Clegg "seemed the only one willing to actually venture into quantification and example," stating he doesn't trust the continuous spin of Gordon Brown and David Cameron who represent the past and vested interests.

On the other side of the coin Reading floating voter Bag Lady described the event as 'gripping'.

Although she was disappointed that the personality of the leaders didn't come through strongly enough for her she decides Nick Clegg is the "most likeable and most authentic out of all three."

And freethinker Elizabeth Thomas says it is "remarkable that... [the UK] has never held debates between candidates running to lead the country."

She cites the international reaction from her native America where expectations for a dull contest between the leaders of the two big parties has been 'transformed' by the traction gained by the third party.

Elizabeth adjudges that "Clegg had cleverly managed to position Cameron and Brown as two peas in a conventional political pod" and successfully delivered "a knockout message of change."


Consequently LibDem bloggers were always likely to be upbeat about the event, with Thatcham's Paul Walter liveblogging and Sandhurst's Mark Thompson hosting a live chat for it's duration - each of which provide some invaluable insights into LibDem thinking.


Opinion poll reactions

After the event LibDem positivity about the result continued with Cllr Glenn Goodall and Paul Walter, who were both strongly encouraged by the performance of their leader.

A position which appears to be borne out by the latest opinion polls. Anthony Wells looks at the figures and sees a big swing towards the LibDems among female voters and under-35's.

Which may explain why Conservative Cllr Richard Willis has scaled back on his reporting on the flood of current opinion polls to highlight only the favorable aspects for his side.

Luckily he isn't the only local blogger who keeps a close eye on the polls: Mark Thompson has been keeping up a balanced and consistent commentary.

Mark starts off by reporting the poll 'bounce' for the LibDems as 'good news', but warns of drawing conclusions before a trend emerges.

He also notes that critical commentators have suggested this may be a high-water mark for LibDem support, and offers the counter-argument that Nick Clegg may begin to benefit from a positive feedback loop if a trend does begin to emerge - which it shows all inclinations of doing as some pollsters are even placing the LibDems in first place (an event unrivalled in modern polling history).

He even admits that the past few days are making him feel 'a bit giddy' with confidence going into the next debate which will focus on foreign affairs, including the UK's relationship with Europe and possibly our international military commitments.

Mark preempts attacks on his party by arguing "there are no easy options for Cameron and Brown to counter Clegg" on these issues, before explaining exactly why in greater depth.

Cllr Warren Swaine provides the opposite angle - he says when the public listen to LibDems without being filtered through the press or broadcast media his words resonate and people simply like what they hear. In his defence he cites a Newsnight focus group and doorstep canvassing.

And in reference to the famous rally when the wheels came off the seemingly unstoppable Labour bandwagon in 1992, Paul Walter asks exuberently: 'Was the leader's debate David Cameron's 'Sheffield moment'?'

Bracknell Blog's Darren Bridgeman is more cautious and urges fellow LibDems not to overemphasis reactions to the result of the debate and instead use it for personal motivation alone.

Wokingham PPC Cllr Prue Bray is clearly doing exactly that, noting a surge in members of the public on the doorstep stating their willingness to support her - especially considering the prediction of her opponent, incumbent tory MP John Redwood, that it would be a dull affair!

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Update: It's also worth linking to Nigel Morgan's Building Reputations PR blog, where he's been an avid follower of the communications methods employed so far throughout the campaign.

Nigel starts by quoting a Derek Bacon cartoon from The Economist "Brown is ‘the devil you know’, Cameron ‘the devil you don’t’ and Clegg is ‘Who the devil’."

He follows this up with his analysis of the debate, suggesting it may have been a strategic error for Cameron and Brown to agree to Clegg joining in (although in reality they had little choice and they clearly thought they could use him to sidetrack their other opponent).

Refreshingly for a PR man who advocates the benefits of PR Nigel states Clegg was able to shine precisely because he was more natural and remembered the basics of good communication without the need for specific coaching.

Communications guru Graham Jones was particularly interested in how Nick Clegg changed perceptions by modifying his language - instead of calling the prospect of a parliament where no party has a majority a 'hung parliament' the LibDem leader called it a 'balanced parliament'.

At a stroke he banished the negative connotations and brought in a fresh, clear and positive appreciation of the subject, winning kudos within the communications industry up and down the country.

Both Graham and Nigel conclude that if the next two debates go the same way then this election really is up for grabs!


Oranjepan says:
Berkshire bloggers score round 1 to Nick Clegg and the LibDems - just remember there's two more rounds to go...

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More from on the election trail

Rifts Caused By Clean Campaign Pledge

A division has opened up between the parties and candidates over a seemingly innocuous pledge to avoid resorting to 'dirty' tactics during the election campaign.

Conservative and Green party candidates in the two Reading constituencies kicked off the general election campaign with a bi-partisan pledge to make this a positive campaign which doesn't descend to personal attacks.

Reading Guide describes how the pledge

"is seen as a meaningful gesture to end some of the doorstep lying, political PR spinning and personal insults which, sadly, is typical in many consituencies from parties across the spectrum."

Reading West's Alok Sharma said, "voters are completely turned off by personal attacks and negative campaigning," adding,

"Whilst we are about it, it would be helpful if every political party in Reading stuck to explaining its own policies rather than trying to invent policies for other parties!"

He also gives space to opponent Adrian Windisch, who explained,

"We have seen a decline in voter turnout and people have lost trust in politicians. One way to gain it back is to talk about policies not personalities."

On his own blog Adrian Windisch provides the full text of the pledge, which all candidates standing in Reading have been invited to voluntarily abide by.

And BBC South political correspondent Peter Henley has been following the matter. In Reading East the 'two Robs' (Wilson and White) were happy to speak with one voice on the matter too.

He notes LibDems Gareth Epps and Daisy Benson were both happy to sign the pledge: Cllr Benson said, "I've signed it on the basis that I've got nothing to hide in terms of having a clean campaign. I was happy to sign it."

Anneliese Dodds offered her support "Certainly, we'll abide by it, it's what I've been doing for the past four years," adding, "Of course we want to see a clean campaign, but people to have to be honest."

This line seems to have opened the floodgates as Cllr Warren Swaine calls on Ms Dodds to apologise for the range of inaccurate and personal attacks she has been making in her election literature.

He argues that policy and personality in politics are interwoven and inseparable - since they reflect what a person represents and whether the public can place their trust in them is a matter of them meaning what they say and doing what they mean.

Clearly he doesn't believe Labour as the matter escalated when he made an official complaint over Labour's 'libellous' claims in Ms Dodds campaign.

But the matter has become a greater bone of contention for Labour. Naz Sarkar refused to add his signature to Ms Dodds', commenting, "this 'pledge' is a cynical attempt by the Tories to close down debate on issues where they feel vulnerable."

And when LibDems called on Rob Wilson to face the public Conservatives have been shown to be inconsistent and evasive in their approach too - rather than responding directly to a challenge and providing an explanation why he was unwilling to answer questions on environmental matters the tory MP launched into his own diversionary attack on a widely discredited rumour.

Clearly Mr Wilson doesn't agree with either his colleague Mr Sharma or the pledge they both signed!

In his final Westminster Diary of the parliament Rob Wilson describes his belief in the necessity of good manners and courtesy. His enlightening comments show he accepts sincerity at face value and thinks this makes for a more effective way of dealing with people, even if this means the result is unwanted...

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Update: Baba Mzungu notes a spokesperson for Labour leader Gordon Brown recently said "manifesto pledges are not subject to legitimate expectation."


Oranjepan says:
Greens have been eager to raise their profile ahead of an election in which they still wait to gain their first seat. They have made a string of pledges which they hope will gain public attention, but the sceptics may well say they've let their enthusiasm get to them and have been duped - this 'pledge' looks like an effective endorsement of their ideological opponents.

It was often said that Tony Blair's success as a politician came down to his ability to do sincerity - but would you trust a liar who promises not to lie? Clearly there are still many people who say 'yes'.

Politicians from the school of realpolitik will argue trust is overrated - what's needed are guarantees.

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More from on the election trail

Recommended Reading List #54

With the general election announcement candidates and the public will all be vying with each other to dominate the airwaves and set the agenda. So it's worth giving space to our foremost political correspondent the BBC South's Peter Henley, who gives a preliminary overview of the background the election will be played out against in Berkshire.

He states the Royal County is a land of contrasts with "smart country villages alongside London overspill, well-heeled commuter estates surrounding streets with inner-city levels of crime." And mirroring this is a 'pretty colourful' political debate too.

The expenses affair and political funding will both be battleground in Berkshire, while social, economic and environmental issues will make for an unpredictable outcome all round as each side has hope of making gains!

Election Called For May 6th

Local political bloggers have responded to the long-expected the announcement that the general election will be held at the last possible moment on May 6th.

Labour candidate Rachel Eden says it is good news for everyone that the general election will be held on the same day as the local elections - with the possible exception of the returning officer and counters - as she says this will guarantee a higher turnout.

Conservative Cllr Richard Willis also thinks it is good news. After 2 years of prevarication and 13 years of bad government he says the public will 'at last' have an opportunity to make a 'real choice'. He predicts his party will gain an overall majority.

LibDem Paul Walter is less emotionally attached to the outcome than in previous elections, but is nevertheless looking forward to the next few weeks as an opportunity to increase the number of votes and seats his party gains. He expresses 'positive excitement' and expects it to be fun all the way.

The Green Party's Rob White makes the perfunctory press release stating his party position.

Meanwhile Bracknell Blog's Dazmando may be a LibDem but is happy to promote Independent candidate Mark Ashwell as his way of providing a service in a way which he feels may make a difference.

Elsewhere Wokingham's communications guru Neville Hobson gets ready for "four weeks’ of intense message-pushing, stunts, posters, door-knocking, leaflets, TV debates, party election broadcasts, and more," asking whether digital and social media will be used by the political classes to truly enagage the public in a two-way communication process.

He looks back on the last election when he was optimistic that technology would herald a brave new world of politics, noting this was 'the wishful thinking of an early adapter', but remains convinced that the impact of websites, blogging, twitter and the rest will play a greater role in enabling the public to find out more about our candidates.

Neville says:

"this general election will be marked out by how ordinary people use social media to propel discussion, critique election campaigns, challenge politicians, put forward alternative points of view, and generally voice their opinions using informal tools and channels to connect and engage directly with others and influence opinion."

Communication is obviously the power of the age!

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More from on the election trail

On Politicians And Elections

Media types love to chatter about how new mass media forms will affect public decision making, so they may be interested in how the upcoming general election is seeping out into the non-political blogoshere as members of the wider public start to consider which way to cast their ballots.

Evangelical Christian Richard Walker has an informative video in which faithful MPs from all sides discuss the way ethics shapes all form of belief and how they understand the relationship between religion and politics.

He also links to a religiously-themed quiz which may indicate who your ideal cabinet would include - though be warned if you don't like partisanship, through this he apparently has his own 'essentially conservative biases' revealed to him.

Meanwhile independent-minded Emily O at Babyrambles is conscious that politicians are trying to woo the mumsnet generation and holds off committing to any one side to demand pledges to a selection of 'family friendly' policies relating to the economy, taxation, education and health.

Emily says she feels privileged to have the vote, but wishes politicians could be more honest and upfront with their plans so she can make a better-informed decision

She also adds a well-balanced conclusion:

"I'm interested in the fundamental stuff that will help my family be happy and secure. The same as everyone else really. The fact I'm a mum is almost irrelevant."

Meanwhile Joanna at eco-congregation Greening St John's tells members of their congregation to "ask the climate question" at hustings in the marginal East Reading constituency.

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More from on the election trail

Axis Of Authoritarianism

Reading List has been pointed in the direction of an interesting analysis of MPs.

PublicWhip and TheyWorkForYou collated data from parliamentary votes on behalf of LibDem Voice to rank MPs according to how authoritarian they are.

They used 10 areas as criteria:

1. ID Cards
2. Control Orders
3. Freedom of Information Exemptions (MPs Expenses)
4. Extradition Act 2003
5. DNA Database
6. Abolition of Parliament Bill
7. 90 Days Detention
8. Trial Without Jury
9. Freedom of Speech
10. Intervention in Coroner's Inquests

and used the information to compile a list of all 646 MPs.

Berkshire's MPs rank as follows (score 100 - most authoritarian; score 0 - least authoritarian):

1= Martin Salter (Reading West) - 100
259= Fiona MacTaggart (Slough) - 73
418= Rob Wilson (Reading East) - 9
542= Adam Afriyie (Windsor) - 3
542= Richard Benyon (Newbury) - 3
542= Andrew MacKay (Bracknell) - 3
542= Theresa May (Maidenhead) - 3
542= John Redwood (Wokingham) - 3

The usual caveats apply about taking this list at face value, as party tactics always play a part in each vote, but it nevertheless provides a good insight into what each individual and group actually stands for.

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More from On the election trail

Henley's Hustings - #rdgwest

#rdgpol - Hustings are part of the time-honoured tradition of election campaigning and a mere 50 years after they were first adopted televised leadership debates have been one of the enlivening themes of 2010.

That's not to say Charlie Brooker has gone all weak at the knees in prospect of a revolution in the mind of the public. Repeat: Charlie Brooker has not gone all weak at the knees.

For him "TV still fascinates and horrifies politicians in equal measure." He says it is a 'magic amulet' that has the potential to hypnotise and beguile, or, equally, to explode in your hand at any moment. The problem being that TV has a "laser-like ability to magnify physical flaws or tonal cock-ups... no matter how eloquent you are."

Well, he's the expert.

Nevertheless he seems to be undecided whether there's a fine line or a massive gulf between pure entertainment and meaningful engagement.

But Prime Ministerial debates aside, the competitive debate has long been an eagerly anticipated event among provincial candidates and activists as a rare occasion to leave their mark. And so it proved when the three main contenders for the Reading West seat went head-to-head on the regional slot of the BBC's Sunday political magazine, The Politics Show.

Cllr Richard Willis, Charles Hindhaugh and John McGarvey were on standby to advertise proceedings.

BBC South's political editor, Ian Paul also provides a handy (and detailed) overview as an appetite whetter.

Reading is described as a 'yo-yo town' where support for political parties swings. Reading University's Dr Philips Giddings describes Reading as typical of the south of England, as an area which is constantly growing and changing - which makes for constant political challenges.

You can watch it all again as Peter Henley grills Cllr Daisy Benson, Naz Sarkar and Alok Sharma on iPlayer for the next week (from 27.30-47.30).

Cllr Willis didn't feel 20 live and unedited minutes was enough to get into the issues affecting one constituency - so we can assume he doesn't think 3x90 minute debates among the Prime Ministerial candidates will barely scrape the surface of the nations 650-odd seats either.

But it seems the main problem was the unproductive 'bickering' between Labour and Conservative candidates which ate up so much of the time and sapped the energy from the debate.

Sarah Sharpe and Josh Harsant agreed with Cllr Benson that the issues should be more important than the egos involved.

Reading's Member of the UK Youth Parliament, Josh Harsant, went into more detail on his own blog. He argues people don't want representatives to claim endless credit for themselves, but to represent them. He asks:

"do people want to vote for people who bicker and get nowhere? No; they want someone who identifies the issues, responds and does something about it!

Green party candidate Adrian Windisch disagrees. He seems to want to turn the debate into a discussion on his pet ideas. He obviously felt somewhat aggreived for being excluded from the debate, but hemakes up for it by giving a short recap of the three main topics (health, education and housing).

Meanwhile LibDem Cllr Warren Swaine goes hunting for some evidence of his opponent's mistakes and finds a prime example where what was said on air was the opposite of what is being said on the ground.

And finally, West Berkshire's ever diplomatic communications officer Phil Spray provides judgement - he calls the result of the debate a score draw.

But then it's not all or just about winning, is it?


Oranjepan asks:
What are the big issues for you?

Have your say in the comments - you never know, there's always someone reading!

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Update: Jane Griffiths is more concerned about where the interview was held.

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More from on the election trail

Tories Face Questions Over Funding

A blogstorm has broken out as political commentators have raised questions about campaign funding in the Conservative party.

Labour councillor John Ennis started the debate by suggesting tory parliamentary candidate Alok Sharma is able to "pay for people to deliver fancy leaflets of airbrushed politicians that actually say nothing about what they are going to do" because he is funded by the "an exiled Tory grandee who doesn't even live in the country."

West Reading independent left-wing councillor Tony Jones picked up on this claim asking:

"with all the fuss about MPs expenses, what should we think if Alok Sharma gets into Parliament with a campaign paid for by questionable money? "

This provided Linda Fort with the opportunity to give Conservative spokesman Paul Swaddle a right of reply.

However he could only state that Belize-based billionaire Lord Ashcroft does not directly provide any funds to Conservative campaigns in Reading.

He then attempted to deflect the attack by attacking the 'cheap political points' made by opponents and the holier-than-thou attitude of Labour activists who are funded by wealth donors themselves.

Meanwhile Liberal Democrats have joined in the debate.

Cllr Warren Swaine notes the "inevitable mudslinging" in the affair is the result of confusion caused by inaccurate details.

To clear up the confusion he corrects the mistakes by identifying from the official record the three millionaires who do contribute to Mr Sharma's campaign, explaining that Lord Ashcroft has provided direct funds to the Conservative campaign in Reading East - not Reading West.

He goes on to describe Labour's 'wallet envy' as an attack motivated by purely partisan interests which follows internal dissent in the trade union movement leading to reductions in their contributions to the Labour cause.

Tilehurst's Cllr Ricky Duveen joins in to say donations from such millionaires who fund party politics for self-advancement should be forced to repay the millions they have spent buying influence.

He comments that fraudulent tax-evaders who fund politics are a "disaster for democracy."

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More from on the election trail.

A Comedy Manifesto

Campaigning comedian Mark Thomas came to Reading this weekend when he made a stop on his 'Manifesto' tour and several local bloggers were there to give a review.

Green Party campaigners Adrian Windisch and Rob White turned out in public to show solidarity (Mark Thomas endorses the Green platform), while Bracknell Blog's Dazmando was also in attendance.

The theme of the show is to give members of the audience a chance to suggest policies in direct democracy fashion, which will then be published and the 50 most popular of which Thomas has committed to campaign to enact - whatever they may be...

Adrian picks out a wide range of aspirations:
- introduction of a national maximum wage
- getting the government to give everyone the day off on their birthday
- legalising homosexual marriage and getting the church to shut up about it
- a three-day weekend
- land instead of the dole
- an IRA honour guard for Thatcher's funeral
- no new blasphemy legislation
- all politicians should be forced to wear the names and logos of the companies which sponsor them
- anyone who supports ID cards should be banned from having curtains
- All models should be picked at random from the electoral register
- introduction of a law making it illegal for MPs to knowingly lie. It shall be known as Archer’s Law

the last of which he is clearly so proud of he mentioned it twice!

While Rob picks out these from the South Street show:
- a Michelin star for Sweeney Todd's
- more capacity in women's' toilets
- everyone should carry around two salt sachets in case of more snow

as well as some other 'gems' from around the country:
- disguising leopards as foxes as a sort of equaliser on foxhunts
- invading Jersey with the aim of closing it down as a corporate tax dodgers paradise
- supporters of nuclear power should be responsible for storing the radioactive waste in their gardens

but he notes the Reading audience ended up voting for the 'lacking-in-comedy-value' renationalisation of the railways.

On the other hand Dazmando makes a clearer distinction between the comedy elements and the serious side, highlighting Greenpeace's petition to stop the building of Project Pegasus at AWE Aldermaston and the campaign to force Bracknell MP Andrew MacKay to repay the £170,000 expenses he claimed fraudulently.


Oranjepan says:
provocative it certainly was, but you wonder who the final joke is on.

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Related Reading: AWE Aldermastion; Bracknell MP Andrew MacKay To Stand Down

Splash To Backlash

Conservatives hoping to make a big splash by bringing party leader David Cameron to Reading have suffered a backlash from commentators.

The general tone of criticism has been to question the actual level of the engagement demonstrated by the party.

John MacGarvey was "surprised, but not displeased" that the event was able to be rearranged quite so quickly after a previous cancellation - apparently due to the harsh weather. However he was a bit annoyed that the timing and location of the event could have been more convenient.

Even the BBC was caught on the hop, dutifully copying out the general press release that the meeting was to focus on health issues and the NHS rather than be open to any subject.

Labour election candidates Anneliese Dodds and Naz Sarkar challenged the tory leader to a real debate, provocatively claiming the event would have been more accurate if it had been called 'Cameron Select' rather than 'Cameron Direct'.

Cllr Glenn Goodall contrasts Mr Cameron's visit to an earlier visit by LibDem leader Nick Clegg, who ensured plenty of advance notice was given, and who chose the time, location and format of the meeting to ensure members of the public were able to fully engage in two-way communication.

And Jane Griffiths picks up on a report by Natalie Slater that Labour activists picketed the event, who were angry that they had been frozen out. She notes how this isn't the complete truth, as invitations had been sent to selected opponents.

Indeed, Mark Reckons did attend and gives his usual full treatment with a bloggers review of the event.

He says the event provided a 'fascinating perspective' on politics.

After a brief introduction he was able to ask the first question from the floor, asking why the tory leader had changed his position on drugs policy. He describes Mr Cameron's shifty response as a deft and subtle way of avoiding directly answering the question - not once but twice.

He compliments Mr Cameron on an assured and professional political presentation, who is highly personable, but was nevertheless clearly dissatisfied with the overall effect.

Mark was clearly unimpressed by the repetitive focus on current economic constraints and the negative aspects of what he couldn't do rather than any solid policies - even noting an 'odd' admission by the Conservative party leader that he probably wasn't able to convince floating voters in the audience to vote for him.

Mark picked up several stylistic similarities to Tony Blair but concluded that the prospective Prime Minister still has a lot of work to do honing his messages in a way that was to appeal effectively.

Dazmando was also in the audience.

He complains that the venue was pretty small for the number of people who would obviously have been interested in attending and says this had a clear impact on the political balance of the people who were there - which meant the tory leader was given an easy ride as many hot topics (such as gay marriage, the EU and MPs expenses) were not covered at all.

Rounding up, he generously adjudges the tory leader to be sincere and well-meaning, but admits he was frustrated with the evening, just as he is with the current situation in general. He came away only hopeful that he will do a good job if he does end up as the leader of the country after the general election.

And finally we return to John McGarvey for his pronouncement on the Conservative leader. John says he was smooth, but lacking in inspiration.

He says he feels like he didn't learn much from the slightly negative responses and overly-deferential and occasionally fawning crowd... or just maybe that tells you everything you need to know.

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Update: World-renowned communications guru Neville Hobson picks up on the launch of Mr Cameron's poster campaign. He says that reactions range from ridicule... to ridicule.

The Conservative leader is starting out early in his rise to being a figure of fun, and Neville explains that although most of the jokes at his expense are pretty mild they do highlight the problem facing all politicians: the need to be believed and trusted in order that they are taken seriously - which is why the airbrushed photograph is so damaging, as they build up the image of a fake.

Loyal Local MP Wob Wilson gives a glowing tribute to the performance of the man he serves under, but then that's only to be expected.



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Background reading: Tory Target Reading, Cameron Indirectly

Making Minds Up In Reading West

LibDems have selected Daisy Benson to be the prospective parliamentary candidate in the Reading West seat at the general election later this year.

She beat out competition from two highly regarded opponents, former Thatcham mayor Alex Payton and veteran West Berkshire councillor Tony Vickers, in a stong contest which Reading List understands raised turnout by over a third among members compared to the selection of Cllr Patrick Murray previously.

Adam Hewitt reports her immediate reaction that she was "delighted" to win the chance to represent local residents, with the offer of a promise "I won't let you down."

Mark Reckons notes that Cllr Benson "regularly tops the list of the most hard-working councillors in the borough" (see report) and points to her innovative use of social media as a way in which she keeps a close relationship with residents and supporters.

In fact Reading Post picks up that she was "overwhelmed" by the number of messages of support sent to her from the online community.

LibDem colleagues in Reading are also backing her to the hilt.

Cllr Ricky Duveen describes how Daisy has built up an "enviable reputation" after less than 4 years on the council, becoming deputy leader of the group and chair of the Health and Housing Scrutiny Committee.

Cllr Glenn Goodall picks up her campaigning efforts on crime and housing issues.

Glenn offers a telling compliment that when she first knocked on his door his housemate described her as "genuine and human" - which was what convinced them to vote for her.

Cllr Warren Swaine goes a step further and says she is a "hard working local politician who can demonstrate a real record of action helping people across the political spectrum," by inspiring grassroots support, not organised backing from millionaire non-doms and trade unions.

And Reading Liberal Youth proudly considers voters will appreciate "the opportunity to elect such a passionate individual with an incredible track record."

Conservative opponents were also quick to congratulate Cllr Benson, even praising her abilities!

Cllr Richard Willis went so far as to compliment her as "very active and outspoken", offering the insight that she will 'hope to make an impact' to raise the LibDem share of the vote in the next few months, although he notes the highest LibDems have achieved in the past is 18.1% in 1992.

The list of candidates in the Reading West constituency is now complete (in alphabetical order): Daisy Benson (Liberal Democrats) joins Bruce Hay (UKIP), Naz Sarkar (Labour), Alok Sharma (Conservative) and Adrian Windisch (Green) vying for votes.

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Update: Adam Hewitt discovers a bit more about Cllr Benson's LibDem policy platform.

Linda Fort grabs a conversation with the candidate.

On her candidate website Cllr Benson says "join me in my campaign to take back power from the two other parties who have both lost touch with the ordinary person."

Josh Harsant, Reading's Member of the UK Youth Parliament, offers good luck to all, saying, "may the best candidate win!"

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Previously: LibDems Ready For Fight In Reading West

More from On The Election Trail

SADs, Dams And 'Lies' In Green-field Dispute

An unseemly spat has broken out between rival Park ward candidates and their supporters over the future of the much-loved Alfred Sutton Playing fields.

Green Party candidate Rob White recently launched a campaign to 'say NO' to developing the open-space - with a 'press release and the ubiquitous Facebook group.

He states that "development on these playing fields has been stopped in the past and we will stop it this time too."

However Labour's Richard MacKenzie struck back, accusing the Greens of 'scaremongering' in a very strongly-worded post entitled 'Lies, damn lies and the Green Party'.

The former Labour councillor for Kentwood argues he campaigned to protect the 5.6 hectare site in 1999 and publishes a letter signed by Cllr Tony Page (1, 2), who is clearly not above joining in the slanging match, by attacking "apparent mischief-making and rumour-mongering being fomented in parts of Park Ward".

He then followed up with a secondary blast accusing his opponents of 'Greenspin'.

Rob White however disputes this, calling Mr Page's words a lot of 'waffle'. He links to the Site Allocations Document (SAD) on the council website showing an area off Crescent Road under proposal.

He also attempts to 'fisk' the rebuttal by citing 'unnamed' council officers who informed him the new Local Development Framework has made the protection afforded in previous briefs "of questionable value" which "wouldn't hold up under an appeal from a developer."

Jane Griffiths is always quick to scent the opportunity to exercise her vendetta against her former Labour-party colleagues and immediately springs to the defence of Rob White, making an assertive comment that the man she calls 'Basher' and Labour's deputy leader of the council are lying.

She claims Cllr Page's letter is an admission that there are concrete plans to plough up the open space and that the mere existence of it on the Site and Detailed Policies Document (SDPD) is proof alone.

However Cllr Page writes:

"Neither I nor my colleagues in the administration would support any development for residential which included the adjacent playing fields."

He also states that the current status of the site is under consideration and that "the January Council meeting will agree a revised draft document for consultation during 2010."

On closer inspection of the documents a more complex picture is apparent, as the site is currently of mixed-usage with some indoor sports facilities and classrooms occupying about half of the site.

The proposal is for replacement buildings, requiring 'mitigation... for development outside of building foot print'.

So when I recently spoke to a local resident who is 'in the know', I was told the campaign to restrict the number of houses on the Green Road development (to the immediate south of the site) had raised the point that the large portion of the playing fields sits directly under Whiteknights Lake dam, and this makes the open space an unsuitable location for wider development in any event.

In other words the protection of the playing fields is to be taken on advice only, but equally, neither are they facing an immediate threat.

Satellite view of the site.


Oranjepan says:
It seems both sides are at best only half-right as the truth has followed its' usual habit of getting lost in the technical wording of obscure procedural documents and an increasingly bitterly-fought election campaign.

Tory Leader 'Target' Questions

The news that Conservative Party leader David Cameron is coming to town to answer questions on the NHS as part of a series of Town Hall meetings across the country called 'Cameron Direct' has stirred the local commentariat from its' hibernation.

Cllr Dave Luckett points out it is unusual for politicians to face the public without a script as he promotes the event on 8th January.

Registration is required to attend the event via email cameron@readingwestconservatives.com.

Cllr Luckett argues that because the meeting is open to the public there will be no planted audience members, although attendance is limited to venue capacity and normal expectations are that loyal supporters would be first in line to make their reservations.

But John McGarvey takes aim at the 'cheesily-named initiative', suggesting it is no more than a paper exercise for publicity purposes rather than a serious attempt at engagement.

Under scrutiny are the reasons why questions are restricted to one topic only.

Reading West candidate Alok Sharma seems confused in his statement:

"It’s a great opportunity for everyone - of any political persuasion - to come along and raise their issues, questions and concerns with him [...] it is also a chance for everyone to have their say."

Perhaps he's just surprised when there is any active response at all!

Which may explain Reading Post's choice to use a particularly unflattering photo showing the wannabe-PM himself to be confused and surprised.

John also criticises the lack of information on the venue and the way the local association are hyping up their interactive, multi-media approach to promote inclusivity with 'questions from the online community' - whoever that may be...

This blog has certainly not been requested to offer any feedback, nor is it apparent anyone else from the general Berkshire blogosphere has!

Meanwhile Dazmando is sceptical about tory attempts to win over steadfast opponents by public relations and spin.

He suggests Conservatives are just relying on a vague perception of openness to seep out into the electorate to sway the few votes needed here and there to gain a majority.

Mark Thompson says the tory behaviour is a cynical and brazen attempt at pure electioneering - he reckons it is a tactic which may work in the short-term, but will harm any longer-term ambitions by further undermining trust in leading politicians and the political system.

Paul Walter is more direct in his comment than any party leader could ever hope to be - he shoots straight from the hip (although I don't think that's him in the video).

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Oranjepan asks:
What would you ask Mr Cameron?

Update: Don't bother - the event is cancelled because of the weather. Reading is obviously too far off the beaten track between Westminster and Witney for the prospective PM and the snow is obviously too extreme compared with Mr Cameron's regular skiing holidays.

LibDems Ready For Fight In Reading West

The contest to replace veteran Labour MP Martin Salter in the Reading West seat continues to heat up as LibDems announced their shortlist of candidates vying for a place on the ballot.

The three hopefuls include three well-respected figures including two from West Berkshire and one from Reading.

Cllr Tony Vickers is a former Lieutenant-Colonel and chartered surveyor who currently represents Northcroft ward in Newbury, Alex Payton is a barrister who is a former mayor of Thatcham and Cllr Daisy Benson will be well known to readers of this blog as a highly active representative of Redlands ward in Reading.

The three candidates will be attempting to sway Liberal Democrats ahead of hustings on Friday 8th January when a vote of members will take place.

The party was forced into the late re-selection after Oxford councillor Patrick Murray decided to stand down as the prospective candidate with rumours circulating that the seat is winnable with the right candidate. Between the 2001 and 2005 general elections LibDem support grew from 12.8% to 15.8% of the vote.

Leader of the LibDem group on Reading Borough Council Cllr Kirsten Bayes has publically offered a vote of confidence in Cllr Benson (who is her ward colleague), who also seems to have the support of the Campaign for Gender Balance lined up behind her.

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Update: Second ward colleague Cllr Glenn Goodall has given Cllr Benson his backing.

Adrian Windisch approves of the fact that all three candidates are more local than Patrick Murray.

Linda Fort notes the announcement.

For more details Anthony Wells' profile of Reading West constituency and comment thread is worth a look.

Awaiting the winner will be a candidates including Naz Sarkar (Labour - blog), Alok Sharma (Conservative Party - website), Adrian Windisch (Green Party - blog), Bruce Hay (UKIP - website).

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More from On The Election Trail

Rumpus Over Campus Patrols

Swiftly following the start of the new academic year Reading University has announced further spending cuts and will withdraw funding for campus patrols.

Anna Roberts reports that the news comes only days after a female student became a target for sexual assault on Shinfield Road, highlighting the need for visible signs of protection.

BBC Berkshire advertises for witnesses here.

But now economic concerns have overridden the safety and orderly conduct of students.

Cllr Benson, who has campaigned for a more effective Police presence in the University area since she was elected in 2006, is dismayed and angry at the news.

She notes how less dramatic issues such as burglary and fly-tipping have been positively impacted by the presence of a pro-active Police presence. The communication links which have provided vital infomation to this vulnerable group could be lost, and she says the timing could not be worse.

Meanwhile the issue has taken on a political complexion as Reading East PPCs for both LibDems and Labour are taking action to raise awareness of the issue.

LibDem candidate Cllr Gareth Epps has set up a Facebook group to share information about how to put pressure on the University authorities, while Labour candidate Anneliese Dodds has visited Eastern Avenue and Granby Gardens to collect signatures on a petition.


Oranjepan asks:
Conservatives have been making lots of headlines during their party conference this week about honestly admitting the scale and size of cuts in spending they'd make, so will Reading East's Conservative MP risk his re-election chances by supporting this cut?

Labour Are Out Of The Running In Reading East

...at least according to the bookmakers.

Ladbrokes are quoted as offering the best price for Labour hopeful Anneliese Dodds at an eye-watering 100/1, putting her beyond the realms of even a 'value' bet!

And in a neat piece of symmetry Conservatives and LibDems are made the twin contenders by Paddy Power at 1/14 and 14/1 respectively. Other parties are not quoted.

Cllr Swaine is excited by this news. He says Ms Dodds has aligned herself too closely with the dying Labour government and is almost certain to suffer the same fate as a swathe of people dramatically reject Gordon Brown.

With voters equally concerned about the prospects of a hung parliament allowing Mr Brown to continue in the job, and a landslide majority for Mr Cameron's Conservative party which would give license to the more ideological tory tax-cutters, the prospect that Labour are 'no-hopers' in this seat may encourage significant numbers to swing behind Cllr Epps parliamentary bid for the LibDems.

It would also mark a remarkable decline for the Labour party to be pushed from 1st place into 3rd in the space of two elections.

UKPollingReport provides unrivalled coverage and analysis of the state of the parties as the final party conference season before the general election heads to its' climax.

Labour Names 10 Candidates

Reading's Labour group has taken the opportunity of the lull in the party conference season to announce ten of 16 candidates who will be standing in council elections next spring.

The biggest news is the return of Malcolm Powers to the local scene after a considerable absence, while a new political dynasty appears on the horizon as Chris Maskell's daughter will be slipped into place as independent councillor Tony Jones stands down (although he has yet to confirm his parliamentary bid).

In swing-seat Katesgrove 20-year-veteran councillor Richard Stanthorp is heading for the hills, allowing newcomer Matt Rodda the chance to gain experience.

The Green Party's Rob White notes that he will be facing a heavyweight in Labour's failed candidate in the Henley by-election and former Kentwood councillor Richard MacKenzie (who wrote the short-lived 'Don't Run The Lollipop Man Over').

Sitting Park ward councillor Shirley Merriot is 'reluctantly' standing down because of 'career pressures', and apprently not because of some of the reasons former Labour MP for Reading East Jane Griffiths describes.

And in Whitley, party employee Jane Eden announces on her blog she will be replacing Mary Singleton-White.

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Update: Reading Chronicle also reports the announcement.

Oranjepan asks:
It begs the question, are Labour now so unpopular that they can only depend on family members, party employees and stalwarts in a town they have held control of for over two decades? And why are they only capable of announcing two-thirds of their slate at this time?

Reading West Selection Up In Air

The battle to replace Martin Salter as MP for Reading West has taken a new twist as LibDem candidate Patrick Murray unexpectedly stood down earlier this week.

According to a statement he explained that time pressures meant he was not able to effectively combine his duties as an Oxford city councillor with his commitment to campaigning. He paid his tributes and explained:

"as I live and work in Oxford I have found that I have not been able to give as much of my time to the residents of Reading West as I should have liked."

Conservative commentators have already jumped to the conclusion that Cllr Murray is leaving the local LibDems in the lurch and that this is a sign of their disarray and 'turmoil'. Cllr Willis is particularly confident this places the seat as a straight two-way contest between Conservative and Labour challengers in which his colleague Alok Sharma is almost certain to win against Labour's 'gaffe-prone' Naz Sarkar.

Meanwhile popular Battle Ward Councillor, Tony Jones, who resigned several decades of Labour party membership in 2008 is not so sure!

He calls for 'a real alternative on election day' - dropping his biggest hint yet that he is preparing to stand as a candidate in Reading West.

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Update: In the Reading Post, Cllr Murray denied that he had been pressured to stand down by party activists hoping to put in a stronger showing as commentators continue predict Labour meltdown.

LibDem activist blog LibDem Voice reports Patrick Murray's decision not to contest the general election, with commenters raising the concern that restrictions limiting the field of potential candidates may not be a good thing.

Cllr Jones has announced he will not stand for re-election in Battle ward, thereby freeing him up to devote resources to a constituency fight.

Reading Post notes that Cllr Jones previously stated it would not be right to stand for council and parliament at the same time.

Former Labour MP for Reading East, Jane Griffiths repeats an unattributed rumour that Reading West LibDems may be lining up to support an 'independent' candidate.

Oranjepan says:
With his experience Cllr Jones isn't interested in helping lifelong opponents, and it is a given he has some indications that he has a realistic chance of putting up a strong fight in Reading West. So all that we're waiting for is the announcement that he will!

Election Special: Round-Up From the Blogosphere

The results are in and so now it's time to collect all the local reaction in another handy Reading List Round-Up.

With different parties trying to spin the results in their favour it's always interesting for Readers to pin comments side by side to ascertain which insights stand up and which fall by the way.

South East England saw no change in the distribution of MEPs returned to Brussels with 4 Conservatives, 2 UKIP, 2 LibDems, 1 Green and 1 Labour candidates elected, as they were in 2004.

Across Berkshire Conservatives were ahead, with the single-issue specialists UKIP in second place, LibDems in third, Labour in fourth and the Green Party fifth. Smaller fringe parties also did better than previously. Turnout was at a level similar to that seen during borough ballots.


From Europe
The European Council on Foreign Relations provides an authoritative summary of the main battlegrounds across the continent and a neat and nicely rounded analysis of the winners and losers.

Wilfried Martens writes an outstanding article for the Centre for European Studies making a convincing case for all the positives which European integration has brought EU citizens and which would be lost were the process to reverse.

Mr Martens is in no way disheartened by the somewhat low turnout in light of all these positive achievements and claims the simultaneous elections across the continent is actually a sign that the EU and movement towards the democratic ideal is gaining momentum.


From Across The Region
Labour's Peter Skinner MEP failed to make an impact as he touched base to urge Labour voters "to stand up for progressive policies that help ordinary people and to reject once and for all the failed policies of the Conservatives".

He ignored national politics to make an unashamedly Euro-positive case that "the European Parliament is THE main battlefield" for issues as diverse as "animal rights, consumer protection, development, fair trade, regulating multinational companies or looking out for Britons in the workplace."

Not to be put off by such Euro-enthusiasm, Howard Thomas, who previously announced his endorsement of UKIP, somewhat effusively declared the election a defeat for the pro-EU cause, suggesting that the vote was essentially a referendum on membership - rejecting the freedom of movement enshrined in European treaties.

The Libertarian Party for South East England concentrates on the national aspect, arguing that the result means Gordon Brown will hang on to power but that the general election is all but wrapped up. RobW is more cautious on the wider issue of membership, saying a consequence of the Eurosceptic majority (on a turnout of one-in-three voters) means David Cameron now cannot refuse the public a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and the wider issue of continued EU membership.

Reading Conservative Wat Tyler is wholly in agreement with the Libertarians, except on the vital point that he thinks the UK should retain EU membership.

Meanwhile left-winger Matt Blackall is less concerned about the implications for future elections or for the national or continental government, concentrating instead on the election of two BNP candidates in other regions of the country.


In Reading
Labour did better in it's Reading bastion than it did across the region, but voters in the town still tended to support the Conservatives in greater numbers.

Former Reading councillor and group strategist John Howarth looks at the picture from the Labour perspective, saying 'disunity and indiscipline' at the national level were the cause of the calamitous results for his colleagues. Public dismay at the expenses scandal hurt his party and the Conservatives, with the main beneficiaries being smaller parties.

He notes that it would be unwise to dismiss the higher proportion of support for 'other' parties as a simple protest, since the swing was as much about traditional Labour voters staying at home as it was about them switching directly to the Greens or BNP - he is defiant that despite the appearance of support for prejudiced parties the people are much more open-minded and reasonable than this.

Because the overall shares of the vote were virtually static compared with last time, the local grandee anticipates the major action a year hence at the General Election which the Euro results were only a prelude to.

Prolific blogger Richard Willis comes out of his north-of-the-river eerie in agreement with his Labour counterpart, and gives a more detailed breakdown of the voting patterns.

From this Cllr Willis makes a generalised attempt to infer the likely general election results for the two Reading constituencies. He disregards three Reading East wards inside Wokingham borough ("a relatively small addition in electoral numbers") and the six Reading West wards inside West Berkshire ("that will add hugely to the Conservative vote"), while neglecting to consider the implication of differential turnouts which are often almost twice as high when electing a Westminster representative.

Cllr Willis does however note a pattern for Greens to win votes at the Euro elections where they do poorly at local elections, but he tries to imply that this reflects a change of tendency rather than the alternative that voters are becoming more sophisticated and are more willing to vote tactically or according to the real issues. Typically, he jibes at the LibDems, who he claims put up a miserable showing.

Local Green party members take a similar view to the indistinguishable Conservative and Labour strategists, hoping that a vote in European elections will translate into votes at local elections and enable them to make their first breakthrough at the local ballot box.

The Greens make it absolutely clear for anyone who is in any doubt that they were fighting tomorrow's election today. They were even moved to celebrate an impending gain of a first council seat on RBC in 2010 - though the public will obviously have more to say about that when the time comes.

Update: Martin Salter MP is thankful for small mercies that the results for Labour "were nowhere near as terrible for Labour in Reading West as elsewhere". Typically he is polishing his own ego, rather than explaining Reading is a regional headquarters for the party and that activists are traditionally drafted in from across the region to help support them in the town.

In Wokingham
Conservative John Redwood MP denies the relevance of the wider selection of parties explaining that the vote was a defeat for proportional representation because voters are "driven to the extremes". Clearly the free-market fundamentalist isn't overly in favour of wider choice when it hurts his side!

He also manages to say in the same breath that only one out of every five votes voted for Euro-sceptic parties and that the majority opinion was Euro-sceptic!

On the other side, LibDem opponent and PPC, Cllr Prue Bray is more excited by the two results in town council by-elections which took place on the same day.

She is pleased that LibDems managed to gain a massive increase in their share of the vote in both these elections and even succeeded in winning one away from the incumbent Conservatives. She is utterly unpeturbed by the lack of catastrophe for her side.


In Newbury
Out in West Berkshire Richard Benyon MP also said the vote indicated the likely general election result, describing the evening as "a real triumph" for his side and "a disaster" for the challenging LibDems.

LibDem parliamentary rival Cllr David Rendel struck back dismissing this as spin, saying the difference in boundaries meant the totals are not directly comparable and with potentially another year to go "there is everything still to play for".

Labour activists highlighted the low turnout caused by a depressed national leadership and argued that this skewed the result giving a false picture, while UKIP declared the night a moderate success for them in the area.

Meanwhile Green party spokesperson Adrian Hollister gives a very bitter and ungracious summation of his opponents, but that's probably because his hopes of a second Green MEP in the region were dashed despite his best efforts.

Among a wide-ranging selection of posts covering the elections Thatcham-based LibDem Paul Walter defends the proportional representation system and the wider range of expression this gives voters. He thinks it is unhealthy for dissent to be masked and that open debate enables people to disagree or agree in full knowledge of the consequence of our choices.


In Bracknell
Radio Bracknell provides a neutral view arguing that the vote in Bracknell was indicative of the wider region - is Bracknell now a barometer of the political mood?

East Berkshire spokesperson for the Green Party David Young released a statement concentrating on his opponents. He said "it was a poor result for the Liberal Democrats and Labour," arguing that while Labour will recover "the LibDems are a spent force".

Mark Thompson obviously doesn't agree with that analysis as he reckons the election of a second LibDem to the European Parliament from the region (Catherine Bearder MEP) is worth celebrating.


In Windsor & Maidenhead
The Libertarians gush at the election night speech made by arch Euro-sceptic tory Dan Hannan MEP, as does Conservative leader of RBWM council Cllr David Burbage (which is less unexpected).

Finally Alistair McRonald gives a rundown on the major stories from his viewpoint and tries to digest what is a pretty mixed bag of results

Oranjepan asks:
What's your story of the 2009 European elections?